Breakout Tracker - November 2009

As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the November edition of the Breakout Tracker.

Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2009 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up.  We base this on player stats thru November 30th and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.

We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:

• Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green

• Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White

• Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red 

Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better, so we raise the bar.  

We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru November 30th).  Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.  

So far, so good with our picks as every one of our top 7 and 14 of our top 20 breakout candidates from the Bible are on pace to breakout this year.  Our predictions on guys like Zach Bogosian, Semyon Varlamov and John Tavares have been especially precise (so far) and we've seen some encouraging signs from a few more breakout picks like Blake Wheeler and Michael Frolik.  We also heard from some readers that the Bible convinced them to draft our #1 breakout candidate Steve Stamkos with an early pick and they're thrilled with the returns so far.  But all is not rosy in the Bible as guys like Jack Johnson, Patrik Berglund and Ryan Callahan are letting us, and in turn, you down.

Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_November09

For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2009 for $6 by following this link.