Tuesday's Daily Dosage - Montoya, Varlamov, Filatov...
by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 9:49 AM EDT
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Al Montoya was the Islanders surprise starter in game #1 so knock me over when the Islanders threw him back in there for game #2. It looks like a good call in retrospect as he stopped 20 of 21 to beat the Wild yesterday. Now I assume at this point you have to leave him in there for game #3?... my lord.
Decent start for Semyon Varlamov with a 30 save shutout of the Bruins in Boston and he's only given up two goals through two games while facing an average of 34 shots/gm. Join me in prayer so that we can keep Varly healthy for most of the season as there is no denying that the kid is talented.
Just like pretty much every game last year, Tuukka Rask was the hard-luck loser as he stopped 35 of 36 but had zero goal support. Rask had a very solid .918 sv% last year and only won 38% of his games (11 of 29) whereas Jonathan Quick and his .918 sv% won 57% of his games (35 of 61).
Uh-oh... there are rumblings that Nikita Filatov could be a healthy scratch tonight... nice to see the Sens show a lot of patience here. I'd tell you not to worry about this but this kid doesn't tend to get a lot of second chances.
Jason Chimera played hero with two 3rd period goals (on seven shots) in the Caps victory. He has three goals on the season but had just 10 all of last year.
PP TOI for the Caps dmen last night - Mike Green (7:36), Dennis Wideman (3:29), Roman Hamrlik (2:16), John Carlson and others (0:00).
Tomas Vokoun was not sharp in his Caps debut last night as he gave up five goals (three from behind the goal line) on 28 shots and was lucky to escape with the shootout victory. I'd expect to see Neuvirth next game as they wait for Vokoun to shake off the rust.
Marcus Johansson returned after being a healthy scratch in game one with 1+1=2 in 15 minutes of ice-time. His nemesis, Mathieu Perreault, only saw eight minutes of action.
Marco Scandella, 2nd amongst Wild blueliners in TOI yesterday with 21:36 including 4:44 on the PP.
Ryan Johansen scratched again for the CBJs.
Oh yeah... Matt Gilroy scratched for the Lightning last night and Anton Babchuk the same for Calgary.
It was only game two but the Canucks already went to their backup as Cory Schneider got the call last night and stopped 23 of 25 for the win. Is this pointing to more starts for Schneids this year or is this just due to Luongo always starting slow and the team concluding that they might as well give him rest now?
Three games in, three losses and at least three goals allowed in each game for Steve Mason... dammit, I wish Mark Dekanich wasn't hurt cause now would have been the prime opportunity for him to strike.
FYI Tomas Holmstrom owners (you sadistic bunch)... Tommy is not going to play on back-to-back nights this season, per the coaching staff, so expect to see him as a healthy scratch a bunch this season.
The Oilers have waived Taylor Chorney, he'll head to OKC once he clears.
Former Coyotes 1st rounder Viktor Tikhonov has lost patience with waiting for a call-up in the AHL (again) and will play in the KHL this year.
The Panthers signed Jonathan Huberdeau to and ELC, likely so he can buy himself as many cheeseburgers as he can possibly eat and put on some weight before next season.
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Get off Montoya!
Cam, love your column; I read it every day. But you need to get off Montoya! His NHL numbers are good. He doesn’t come down with a severe hangnail every morning skate, either. I think you said this issue goes back to Al’s AHL days, but cut the kid some slack, he’s earned it.
Thanks for reading Brownov, appreciate it… but I can’t promise to lay off Montoya until he proves himself… 28 career NHL games does not convince me that he’s for real. I’m much more influenced by this:
2005/06: .907
2006/07: .914
2007/08: .909
2008/09: .885
2009/10: .904
2010/11: .891
… his AHL numbers over the past six years. I don’t have the data in front of me but I can’t think of many guys who went from average (or below average) AHL goalie over 5+ years to quality NHL starter… so that’s why I’m skeptical.
I think it would be irresponsible of me to be advising that you go after this guy when I suspect that he’ll end up like Raycroft, Boucher, Grahame, Ersberg… guys who came flying out of the gates as rookies only to fizzle out shortly thereafter.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you on Montoya… but the magical question is how many games till he turns a believer out of you?
If he can play quality 60 games in a season I think I’d be sold
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I’d like to say 100 as I seem to remember a Gabe Desjardins study that sometime around there was the magic number of when we really know how good a goalie is but I can probably be influenced into forming an opinion at around 60-70 games.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is the post by Gabe Desjardins I was talking about…
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/4/20/1429278/fooled-by-randomness-goaltender
… my takeaway being that you can’t really be confident that a goalie isn’t just getting plain lucky until you have about 3,000 ES shots (approx 120 games) of data.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Should add Steve Mason to the list of goalies who came flying out of the gate and then fizzle out.
Its tough being a Vikings fan.
good call but there is still time for him… but we could probably add guys like Mike Smith & Brent Johnson, they were pretty good as rookies and not the same since.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Jglass stole my thunder. As soon as I saw your list of Raycroft, Grahame, etc, I was going to post Mason should be thrown into that group.
You’re right, though. I suppose we can’t give up on him completely just yet. But when can we?
by Michael Benedicks on Oct 11, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
but Mason could still turn it around and become a solid goalie whereas I’m not holding out hope for Raycroft, Boucher and the rest.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
having said that, Mason is the posterchild for Gabe’s analysis as all if his reputation and hype was based on a stretch of a few months during his rookie season and he hasn’t been anything close to that since… lesson being that it’s best not to base your opinion of a goalie on a limited sample size.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
good question… how long is too long? Sounds like a research project is needed.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this partially relates to my Niemi post earlier. One response was that Niemi had only played 102 regular season games (also pointed out was that his playoff svp was 896 last year).
One thing we often see is that goaltenders don’t really enter the league as early as skaters and that often their best years start in their mid twenties. A goalie like Mason may never get that chance though because if he keeps along this path hes going to end up becoming a back up just like Raycroft, Johnson, Ellis and others did. Once a guy becomes a back up how often do they really make it back to a starting role?
Its tough being a Vikings fan.
Once a guy becomes a back up how often do they really make it back to a starting role?
another good question… Theodore is the only guy that comes to mind in the past few years that started out as a hotshot youngsters (MTL), was eventually demoted to a backup (MTL, COL) and now has worked his way back up to “starter” status (WSH & FLA… ignoring one year in MIN)
So, not that often I would say.
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by Cam Collingwood on Oct 11, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Scandella is looking really good. Montoya is a nice story hope he sticks going to be hard though there are 3 quality goalies right there. Although i see one of the being traded or waived soon enough.
Varly played good, still think that was a redicoulous trade to get him. Coloardo is rebuilding and that 1st round pick could be top 5 varlamov is good but that could be a good player. A good player that washington dosent really need and Coloardo does.
Working under the KNOWLEDGE that Vokoun wasn’t going to sign in Colorado and given the horrible goaltending due that the Avs had last year, how would you like them to go about improving the goaltending in Denver? Trade was the only option. McPhee has stated repeatedly that the asking price for Varly was a first rounder he just didn’t expect to get it until next year. I understand that people tend to look at the trade and say “OMG a first rounder for a unproven goalie?” People forget that Varlamov was a first rounder as well. They traded a first for a first with a few years of development under his belt and who had motivation to succeed on a rebuilding team with ZERO pressure from younger versions of himself waiting in the wings.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
You make some good points Mike but the problem I (and several others have) is that pick could end up being a game changer.
Varly has also not shown the ability to stay healthy in his short NHL career. It’s a big risk at a steep price.
If I was GMing the Avs I would have picked up a good veteran FA goalie (like Giguere) and then take a flyer on somebody like Dekanich. If it works you’ve got a solid goalie. If not, then you try again next year. The Avs are in rebuilding phase I don’t think they should be trading away potential like that pick… just as the Leafs.
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i see Mike’s point. it was definitely a good idea for Colorado to acquire Varly. he addresses the team’s #1 need and while not fully “proven” he has progressed nicely along the development curve and that has real value over a newly-minted 1st round goaltender prospect — both in terms of time value + likelihood that the player will reach his full potential.
also see Jay’s — Varly unfortunately has demonstrated that he can be pretty fragile and that 1st rounder could be a lottery pick (a la the Phil Kessel trade).
overall, i like that the Avs were aggressive and didn’t fiddle around with re-treads and darkhorses for an entire season, however, the market for goalies was so incredibly WEAK that I don’t care how many times McPhee stated that his asking price was a 1st—he never should have gotten it. Moreover, Varly was saying he was going to bolt to the K, further weakening McPhee’s hand. Adding a 2nd round pick just added insult to injury.
I would have called McPhee’s bluff. Instead, the Avs caved—and overpaid.
Wouldn't call Giguere "good"
Veteran and FA describe him as a goalie. 900 svp last year… yikes.
Its tough being a Vikings fan.
When said ‘good veteran’ I meant somebody who could provide stability and leadership.
Lots of guys out there like that can you could have picked up cheap.
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