Friday's Daily Dosage - Alfredsson, KHLe, Realistic Forecasts...

He could put on 25 pounds but he'd still look like a pre-teen

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins says he has put on 10 pounds since the end of his Jr. season but is still south of 180 and still looks like a kid you'd see at a 12-year-old's birthday party (not that I attend a lot of those).

Daniel Alfredsson says his rehab from offseason back surgery is going well and he thinks he'll be ready for the start of training camp.  We'll see what the 38-year-old has left in the tank as he's coming off a brutal season in which he could barely manage shots (1.8/gm), let alone points (31 in 54 games).

Sean Avery has apparently been arrested in LA for shoving a police officer... sounds about right. [TMZ]

Brett Connolly took a tumble into the boards and left injured from last night's Team Canada U20 scrimmage but Don Hay said afterwards that it was just a bruise... so it doesn't sounds serious but injuries just see to follow this guy around.

Owen Nolan has accepted a training camp try-out invite from the Canucks... good luck with that... The 39-year-old played in Switzerland last year and his been mostly ineffective in four NHL seasons since the lockout.

Great work from Bruce Peter over at Puck Worlds as he's calculated an up-to-date KHL-NHL equivalence factor (.62) that is a lot lower than the gospel as written by Gabe Desjardins (.83 for RSL to NHL transfers).   These NHLe's are too be used with caution but can give you a rough guide of what to expect.  Bruce's NHLe would put Jaromir Jagr at 52 points next year which I think is in the ballpark, although I think Jagr's good for a little more, maybe 55-60.

More hilarity from Jeff Angus over at DobberHockey as he tries to justify why their projections are always ridiculously optimistic:

To me, projections will inherently be optimistic. Why? Two main reasons:

1) Injuries. We as prognosticators account for injury, but there are a lot that you would need a crystal ball to predict (Parise last season, for example).

2) Projections are done in a vacuum, to a degree. The point I am trying to make is that we often project numbers for players making assumptions (better linemates, power play time, that sort of thing). Not every player can get first power play time. Not every player can get top line minutes. However, ‘if’ (a dangerous word, I know) these were to happen, how would a player do?

I agree on #1, you can't forecast which players are going to suffer major freak injuries. 

But for #2 is he saying that they throw out realism and just give you a projection based on the best case scenario?  Umm, well we know that's basically what they do but I don't know if I'd word it that way If I were them.  This is like a weather forecaster who just tells you it's going to be sunny every day and leaves you all wet when it inevitably rains 50% of the time.  Quick example... last year there were 49 players who topped 60 points and the average over the past three years is 55 players.  Dobber's 2011/12 projections have 77 players with 60+ points.

What say you... you want realistic or the-sky-is-always-blue forecast?

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