The other day we hit you with our Consensus Breakout Confidence Index and the table is reproduced here:
A few observations:
- Unanimous selections (named on all eight ballots): Drouin, Galchenyuk, Saad, D.Hamilton & Kulikov.
- Missed out on being unanimous by one vote: MacKinnon (excluded by Forecaster, they had him at 44 points), Faulk (THN - 25 points), Bernier (Dio) & Bishop (Dio). Dio justified excluding them by saying that he sees both as being in platoon situations and unable to establish themselves as true #1s this year.
- The most clear consensus picks were Drouin (eight Tier-1 votes) and Mikkel Boedker (five Tier-2 votes).
- The most divisive choice may have been Tyson Barrie (ranked #16) as he received votes all over the map and was even left off of two ballots.
- There were three players that received Tier-1 votes that didn't make the top 33 list: Tyler Bozak (projected for 54 points by Dobber), Steve Downie (jsuites) & Jakub Kindl (projected for 35 points by Forecaster).
- I find it very interesting that the group has more confidence in Drouin than MacKinnon, when Nate is the one that seems more certain to stick in the NHL and didn't build his resume largely on the back of a 24% shooting percentage last season. Drouin will likely also be with Tampa all season but there are some rumblings out there right now, so you never know.
- I'm surprised by the confidence people have in Dmitry Kulikov despite the fact that he's missed an average of 16 games per year over the last three. That's what gave me pause and dropped him into Tier-2 for me.
- It was feast or famine for Seth Jones as he was a Tier-1 pick on five ballots but was totally left out of the top 30 by jsuites & Forecaster. He looks set to play a major role in Nashville this year but some are pulling back on the reins as they're not sure how many offensive opportunities he'll see. I like him to have a big year, dmen can do well under Trotz.
- Alone on an island... I am high on Marcus Johansson (ranked #22) this year and I'm surprised nobody else is. Sure he's not a great option in standard leagues but in points-only leagues I think this guy is a safe bet for 50 points. Health is a concern but he's cemented his place on the top line with Backstrom & Ovechkin and finished last year with 20 points in his final 22 games.
- Probably the most surprising ranking for me is that the group is so high on Vladimir Tarasenko (ranked #11). The talent is there but he really wore down last year (just 3+6=9 in his last 30 games) and I am just not confident that he's going to be relied on by Hitchcock to play a major role on a deep Blues squad.
- Disappointing to me was that the group didn't agree with me on Johansson and also Jared Spurgeon (ranked #32). He had 15 points in 39 games last season (a 32 point pace over 82 games) while playing solid minutes (21:32/gm with 3:05 on the PP) for Minny. I don't see what stops him from hitting 30 points in, this, his fourth season. Book it. He may be this year's Logan Couture/Alex Killorn for me, so get ready to hear lots about him!
Let us know in the comments where you think we f'd up.