This is typically one of our more popular posts (see last year's) as we get a lot of people asking us about guys that typically go north or south during the 2nd half of the season...

2nd Half Stars

These are the guys who make a habit of turning it up after the All-Star break... we won't ask them what they were doing in the 1st half. Here's our All 2nd Half Stars Team:

F - Pavel Datsyuk - career ppg: .95 pre AS break, 1.05 post AS break. He starts slow (career .83 combined in Oct/Nov) but finishes insane (career 1.07 after November).

F - Brad Richards - career ppg: .88 pre AS break, .98 post AS break. His numbers have increased post break in seven of the past nine seasons... but not last season.

F - Jason Spezza - career ppg: .97 pre AS break, 1.07 post AS break. Over the past three seasons he is .77 before the break and 1.11 after.

Honourable mention amongst the forwards goes to Jason Pominville (.78 pre, .83 post, increased in each of the past five years), Thomas Vanek (.79 pre, .89 post, his career post AS break s% is 19.6% versus 13.6% prior), Jarome Iginla (.88 pre, .95 post, he was 18+10=28 in 18 March & April games last year) and Sam Gagner (.51 pre, .87 post, production has increased in each of his first four seasons).

D - Mark Streit - career ppg: .53 pre AS break, .72 post AS break. His numbers have increased post break in each of the four seasons prior to missing all of 2010/11.

D - Ryan Whitney - career ppg: .51 pre AS break, .68 post AS break. Prior to missing the 2nd half last year, his numbers have increased post break in each of his first five seasons.

Honourable mention amongst the dmen (note: Mike Green would be a Star choice but his season has been a hot mess and who knows if he'll return) goes to Nicklas Lidstrom (.72 pre, .76 post, increased post break in four of the past six seasons), Tom Gilbert (.33 pre, .57 post, March & April are the two best months over his career) and Alex Goligoski (.49 pre, .62 post, 15 points in 23 games after joining Dallas in February last season).

G - Cam Ward - last four seasons: 2.75 gaa & .911 sv% pre AS break, 2.37 gaa & .922 sv% post AS break. His numbers have improved post break in each of the past four seasons.

Honourable mention amongst the goalies goes to Henrik Lundqvist (2.33 & .919 pre, 2.16 & .923 post, his numbers have improved post break in four of the past five seasons), Pekka Rinne (pre: 2.42 & .919, post: 2.24 & .925) and Antti Niemi (pre: 2.39 & .915, post: 2.28, .919).

Stinkers after the jump...

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A few days ago we looked at the players who have been killing fantasy teams so it's only fair we look at the players who have saved them. A lot of these players' performances were completely unpredictable but some of them we should have seen coming.

Here are the players that have massively exceeded our expectations. If there is a player or two your team owes it's fantasy success to, pump his tires in the comments section... it's the least you can do for your fantasy hero.

The ''what we expected' stats are from our SuperStats Projections. Current and Project Stats have both been prorated to 82 games to make comparisons easier.

Adam Henrique
What we expected: 0+0=0... what we got: 27+43=70
Like everybody else we weren't expecting Henrique to make an impact or even play this season. We had him ranked 338th overall in our Fantasy Prospect DB which seemed reasonable after his rookie AHL season with 25+25=50 in 73 games. With RNH out injured we're looking at the likely ROY now.

Matt Read
What we expected: 0+0=0... what we got: 26+32=58
Things might have changed had we made our projections a little bit later as Read was getting a lot of hype in training camp. We did rank him 133rd in our Pro DB but it's not too often undrafted 25 year olds put up 58 point seasons (playing on the third line no less).

Craig Smith
What we expected: 0+0=0... what we got: 17+32=48
Cam was loving Smith but we didn't expect him to make the team this year. He's cooled off considerably (two points in last 13) but still has a shot at the magical 50 point season.

Kyle Wellwood
What we expected: 0+0=0... what we got: 14+30=45
After a half season in the KHL, Wellwood is back. When we made our projections I can't remember if we didn't know Wellwood was going to be in the NHL or didn't care. After 25 points in his last full NHL season the not caring would be understandable. He's playing well enough that he might help some of you in deep points only leagues.

Carl Hagelin
What we expected: 0+0=0... what we got: 22+22=44
He was ranking 415th in our Pro DB (the 400's are where fantasy prospects go to die) but Hagelin has exceeded all expectations. Even making the team would be a surprise but he's been contributing and has been finding himself with some pretty great linemates (Stepan and Gaborik most recently).

Corey Potter
What we expected: 0+0=0... what we got: 8+32=40
Journeyman 27 year old d-men are not normally of interest to fantasy players but Potter has been the exception this season. Last year he had 37 points in 75 AHL games but he's managing to outproduce that pace when he's been healthy in Edmonton.

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If I can't win my league, my next favourite pastime is coming up with excuses explaining why I didn't. If you're at all like me this post might give you some good ammo to hang onto the last shreds of your fantasy hockey reputation.

Here are the players that have massively failed to live up to our expectations. If there is somebody you're frustrated by on your fantasy team feel free to vent in the comments.

The ''what we wanted' stats are from our SuperStats Projections. Current and Project Stats have both been prorated to 82 games to make comparisons easier.

Alex Ovechkin
What we wanted: 51+58=109... what we got: 34+32=67
Ovie's struggles have been well documented. The good news is he had a bit of a hot streak a few week or ago (11 pts in seven games) but the bad news is he's gone cold again (two points in last five). Do you know that Ovechkin hasn't scored more than three points in a game this season?

Magnus Paajarvi
What we wanted: 22+28=49... what we got: 0+12=12
Remember we're not saying he has 12 point total, we're saying in the 28 games he played he was playing at a 12 point pace! We weren't expecting too much of him but when you have such an epic fail it deserves a mention. Just to prove that Cam and I are stubborn we just picked up Paajarvi in a deep keeper league and we're going to stash him on the bench for next year.

Ryan Getzlaf
What we wanted: 25+65=91... what we got: 13+45=58
Health has been the only problem with Getzlaf the last four years. He's been over a point-a-game player in every one of those seasons... until this year. His minus-19 is a nice cherry on the top for his owners as well.

Ville Leino
What we wanted: 21+37=58... what we got: 7+17=25
Everybody (except for Terry Pegula) knew that the signing of Leino was a bad idea. He might be overpaid, but we still expected around 50 points. Instead we get an injury filled campaign where Leino has played at just a 25 point pace.

Ales Hemsky
What we wanted: 26+49=75... what we got: 11+32=42
Hemsky had a bit more talent around him and he was apparently healthy coming into the season. He did get injured again but the surprising part is that he hasn't produced when he's been in the lineup. Things are looking up for Hemsky though as he's got five points in his last six and he should get a ticket to a contender very shortly.

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The idea for this post began when I started reading Dio's Free Agent and Trade Target Posts this year. He uses ESPN ownership percentages and I'm an owner in Yahoo! leagues. The numbers of the two sites seemed to be very different so I thought I needed to take a closer look.

Both have very large populations so we should be seeing pretty similar ownership of players, right? Well ... no. Why? I have no idea. If anybody has any suggestions on why Mikhail Grabovski is owned in 30% more leagues in Yahoo! or Shawn Horcoff is owned in 80% more often in ESPN leagues I'd love to hear it in the comments.

- On average players in ESPN leagues are owned an average of 9% more than in Yahoo! leagues. Maybe the ESPN default leagues have larger roster sizes? Larger leagues use ESPN more often? Not sure.

- ESPN has 124 players who have a 100% ownership. Yahoo! has just seven. The breakdown is below in chart form. In ESPN leagues, 144 players are owned in more than 90% of leagues but it drops down dramatically to just eight between 80 % and 90%. Yahoo! has a similar distribution to ESPN (as you would expect) but much less dramatic.

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More after the jump...

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Here a few players that have surprised us in the early going.  If there is anybody you think should be added to the list throw them in the comments with why they've surprised you.

John Tavares, NYI - 4 gms with 5+3=8
He did all that damage in just two games but J.T. looks like a much more dangerous player early on.

Phil Kessel, TOR - 3 gms with 5+3=8
I've never been impressed with Kessel's game but this year he's looked really, really good.  Seems to have a lot more confidence and is actually controlling the play.  For a Kessel hater like me, that's a tough statement to type.

David Legwand, NSH - 4 gms with 2+6=8
He already has 20% of his production from last year.  His hot start could mean a 50 point though.

Shane Doan, PHX - 4 gms with 3+4=7
Hot start for a pretty solid 60-70 point guy.

P.A. Parenteau, NYI - 4 gms with 1+6=7
These numbers are just another reason Tavares is amazing.

James Neal, PIT - 6 gms with 5+1=6
He's developed a lot of chemistry with Evgeni Malkin and Steve Sullivan.  Assuming Geno is mostly healthy, I think Neal's got a shot at a 30-30 season

Luke Adam, BUF - 4 gms with 3+3=6
A slump could mean a shake up (and a fourth line job) but the early chemistry he's shown with Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville should get him a pretty long leash.

Milan Michalek, OTT - 5 gms with 3+2=5
That Heatley trade is looking pretty good now!  He's played around a 40 point pace in Ottawa but he has more talent than that.

Marc-Andre Bergeron, TBL - 5 gms with 2+3=5
He might not play a lot but he should be pick up some nice PP minutes and with the talent on the Bolts he could put up 30+ (he's done it four times in the NHL)

Tyler Seguin, BOS - 5 gms with 1+4=5
I'm kicking myself for not picking him up in more of my leagues.  This year could be his coming out party.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM - 3 gms with 4+0=4
Playing with Hall and Eberle.  Will he be in the NHL seven games from now?

Jack Johnson, LAK - 4 gms with 2+2=4
The biggest surprise is he's NOT a minus!

Jiri Hudler, DET - 4 gms with 2+2=4
I'm actually not that surprised.  I think Hudler has a 60 point season in him. After only 37 last year many wrote him off.

Sami Salo, VAN - 5 gms with 2+2=4
Huge game last night boosts his numbers but the real surprise is he's played five injury free games.

Max Pacioretty, MTL - 4 gms with 2+2=4
We were hoping for 50 points this season but so far things have started out very well for Max.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, PHX - 4 gms with 3+0=3
Former 6th overall pick might live up to the hype this year

Ian White, DET - 4 gms with 2+1=3
Remember he has a 38 point season under his belt.

Kris Versteeg, FLA - 3 gms with 1+2=3
Getting big minutes (especially on the PP) in Florida is surprising for me.

Dion Phaneuf TOR - 3 gms with 1+2=3
Remember when he was a 60 point d-man with 182 PIM's?  Most fantasy owners would take half of that... he's on his way so far.

Alright, so while we've been talking for the last few weeks about this guy getting cut and how this other guy won't make it, we're getting down to the nitty-gritty and now we turn the spotlight on those that might actually not get cut.

Some of these guys could still be on the chopping block but it's still worth mentioning them for surviving this long and it certainly can't hurt their status in the organization.  Others could use this as a springboard for a dream rookie season like Cam Fowler, Derek Stepan & Jeff Skinner did last year... so stay tuned.

Players that are still in jeopardy of getting cut are in italics.

ANA - Andrew Gordon & Devante Smith-Pelly
CGY - Roman Horak
CAR - Ryan Murphy, Justin Faulk & Riley Nash
CHI - Brandon Saad
COL - Stefan Elliott & Mark Olver
CBJ - David Savard, Cam Atkinson & Maksim Mayorov
DAL - Tomas Vincour
DET - Cory Emmerton
EDM - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Lander & Lennart Petrell
FLA - Jacob Markstrom, Erik Gudbranson & Mike Kostka
LA - Viatcheslav Voynov
MIN - Brett Bulmer & Marco Scandella
MTL - Raphael Diaz
NSH - Craig Smith & Mattias Ekholm
NJ - Adam Larsson
NYI - Ryan Strome & Kirill Kabanov
OTT - Mika Zibanejad, Stephane Da Costa, David Rundblad & Jared Cowen
PHI - Matt Read, Sean Couturier & Erik Gustafsson
STL - Evgeny Grachev
TB - Brett Connolly
TOR - Jake Gardiner & Matt Frattin
WSH - Dmitri Orlov & Cody Eakin
WPG - Mark Scheifele

Most Unexpected: 

1. Kostka (FLA)
2. Saad (CHI)
3. Bulmer (MIN)
4. Horak (CGY)
5. Scheifele (WPG)

Most Likely to Head Back to Jr.: 

1. Kabanov (NYI)
2. Smith-Pelly (ANA)
3. Bulmer (MIN)
4. Murphy (CAR)
5. Strome (NYI)

Living the dream... but all dreams must end (aka I don't think these guys are that good): 

1. Kabanov (NYI)
2. Mayorov (CBJ)
3. Horak (CGY)
4. Grachev (STL)
5. Zibanejad (OTT)

Best Breakout Chances: 

1. Rundblad (OTT)
2. Larsson (NJ)
3. Markstrom (FLA)
4. C.Smith (NSH)
5. Savard (CBJ)
6. Nugent-Hopkins (EDM)
7. Couturier (PHI)
8. Scheifele (WPG)
9. Gardiner (TOR)
10. Read (PHI)

Drop a comment if you have an update that I missed & I'll try to keep this updated over the next few days.

We did a post similar to this last year (and the year before) and we heard from a bunch of readers that they found it very helpful, so let's see if we can help you again this year... 

This is for those of you that will be doing a fantasy hockey draft on Yahoo!in the coming weeks.  Yahoo has default pre-draft rankings that you can modify and we'd recommend that you do that based on what we advise below or in the heat of the moment you could end up with some pretty wacky picks or miss a real steal.  This is particularly important if you plan on doing an autodraft.

Yahoo! also gives you the option in their draft tool to sort on Average Draft Position, which is a great idea but the problem is that with so many drafts being done by auto-pick, the ADP is heavily biased toward the default pre-draft rankings, so it doesn't really help you that much.

We should mention that Yahoo! does a decent job with their rankings (nothing close to the ESPN horror show)... it seems like someone gave it the old college try but when you're dealing with a life-or-death fantasy hockey draft (at least to some of us) then you want the job done right... so that's where we come in.

These should be pretty self-explanatory but we'll add some comments, the number indicates the overall Yahoo! ranking and when we refer to our ranking, we're talking about the rankings from our SuperStats projected stats file.

Guys Who Should be Higher(higher, as in closer to Ovechkin):

16 Evgeni Malkin - he's had his issues but will be a 1st rounder in most leagues.
59 Nicklas Lidstrom- pretty late for a guy we have as the 7th best dman.
75 Sidney Crosby - #75??? maybe if he missed 70 games... I'd take him top 10 & cross my fingers.
85 Brent Burns - could hit 50 points with nice peripherals in SJ.
105 Taylor Hall- everyone's favourite breakout pick (was #2 in the Breakout Bible)
107 Alex Pietrangelo - could explode this year. 
113 Marian Hossa- fragile but c'mon, he's better than this.
118 Logan Couture - he's our boy, don't leave him waiting this long!
121 Ryan Callahan- a six-category stud.
123 Derek Roy - he's a point-a-game player, obviously punished for getting hurt last year.
124 Mikko Koivu - same as Roy.

Much more after the jump...

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