As promised in the Breakout Bible, we'll be monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's our first edition of the Breakout Tracker.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2008 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up. We base this on player stats thru November 1st and project a player's points over 82 games (note: we have not adjusted for any injuries or missed games yet, its too early for that) and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better so we're raising the bar.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru Nov 1st). Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
So far we're off to a slow start by our own high standards, but we beg for patience as its very early and we are outperforming our peers. Highlights so far include giving you the heads up on guys like Joe Pavelski, Phil Kessel, Jakub Voracek and Alexander Edler that all look like they're headed for breakout years and were overlooked by most of the other sites. On the flipside, we do have to admit that our predictions are looking wrong on guys like Nigel Dawes, Ted Purcell and Shawn Matthias.
Get the Breakout Tracker xls sheet here... Download breakout_tracker_october08.xls
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our 79 page Breakout Bible 2008 for $5 by following this link.