As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the November edition of the Breakout Tracker.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2008 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up. We base this on player stats thru November 30th and project a player's points over 82 games (note: we have not adjusted for any injuries or missed games yet, its too early for that) and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better so we're raising the bar.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru Nov 30th). Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
We're still ahead of our peers but we'd be lying if we said that we're satisfied with our current results. Highlights so far include our precision in predicting the breakouts by Joe Pavelski, David Krejci and Erik Ersberg and the fact that they were overlooked by pretty much all the other sites. We also called the breakouts by Phil Kessel, Jiri Hudler, Cam Barker and Keith Yandle and are pleasantly surprised that they're exceeding our (and everyone's) expectations. On the downside we're full on writing off guys like Nigel Dawes, Matt Niskanen and Kris Russell.
Get the Breakout Tracker xls sheet here... Download Breakout Tracker_November08
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our 79 page Breakout Bible 2008 for $5 by following this link.