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Breakout Tracker - January 2009

As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the January edition of the Breakout Tracker.

Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2008 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up.  We base this on player stats thru February 2nd and project a player's points over 82 games (adjusted for significant injuries or games missed) and compare that to the predictions.

We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:

  • Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green

  • Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White

  • Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red 

Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better so we're raising the bar.  

We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru Feb 2nd).  Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.  

Our record could be better but we are outperforming our peers and we're feeling good about giving you the pre-season heads up on breakout players like David Krejci, Joe Pavelski and Alexander Edler and the fact that they were overlooked by pretty much all the other sites.  But every rose has its thorn and ours really cuts like a knife (yes, you owe me $5 for working Poison and Bryan Adams into a fantasy hockey article) when we look back on our misguided picks for guys like Sergei Kostitsyn, Nigel Dawes and Kyle Turris.

Get the Breakout Tracker xls sheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_January09

For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our 79 page Breakout Bible 2008 for $5 by following this link.