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Breakout Tracker - March 2009

As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the March edition of the Breakout Tracker.

Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2008 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up.  We base this on player stats thru March 31st and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.

We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:

  • Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green

  • Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White

  • Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red 

Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better so we're raising the bar.  

We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru March 31st).  Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.  

We're feeling good about our picks as at least 10 of the 27 players we predicted to breakout are on pace to have a breakout season (our 37% success rate easily tops the competition).  Also, take a look at the sheet and you'll see that we were the guys who predicted that players like David Krejci, Joe Pavelski, Alex Edler and Cam Barker would breakout while all the other guys weren't even close.  Now when you stick your head out there sometimes you're going to get hurt and so we feel bad that we led you astray on guys like Nigel DawesPatric Hornqvist, and Teddy Purcell... maybe next year, right?

Get the Breakout Tracker xls sheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_March09 

For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our 79 page Breakout Bible 2008 for $5 by following this link.