As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the October edition of the Breakout Tracker.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2009 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up. We base this on player stats thru November 1st and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better so we're raising the bar.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru November 1st). Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
We're off to a bit of slow start but some of these early season projections are a little wacky as we don't expect Craig Anderson to start 82 games and win 55 of them (bold statement, I know). We are feeling good about our breakout picks for guys like Steve Stamkos, Zach Bogosian and Kyle Okposo but when you stick your head out there, sometimes you're going to get hurt and so we're going to need more from guys like Claude Giroux, Jack Johnson and Ryan Callahan... it's still early, right?
Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_October09
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2009 for $6 by following this link.