As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the December edition of the Breakout Tracker.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2009 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up. We base this on player stats thru January 4th and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better, so we raise the bar.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru January 4th). Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
Well 13 of our of our top 20 breakout candidates from the Bible are on pace to breakout this year... that's the good news. The bad news is that our competition is handing it to us right now as the other guys are much more accurate with their predictions so far but we'll be looking a lot better if guys like Michael Frolik, Ryan Callahan and Jack Johnson continue their recent form. Stiffs like Derick Brassard, Nigel Dawes and Patrik Berglund look to be major misses on our part.
Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_December09
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2009 for $6 by following this link.