As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the January edition of the Breakout Tracker.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2009 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up. We base this on player stats thru February 1st and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better, so we raise the bar.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru February 1st). Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
We don't jump ship when times get tough, so we're man enough to admit that things aren't going well for our breakout candidates in the Bible. Yeah, sure we were the only ones bold enough to predict that Steve Stamkos would approach 80 points, but other than that our picks are lagging behind our peers. We still have hope that guys like Sam Gagner, Jack Johnson and TJ Oshie will continue their recent form and finish strong but someone file a missing persons report on Derick Brassard, John Tavares and Patrik Berglund, as those dudes have vanished.
Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_January10
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2009 for $6 by following this link.