As promised in the Breakout Bible, we've been monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the final edition of the Breakout Tracker for 2009/10
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2009 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers stack up. We base this on the final player stats for 2009/10 and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better, so we raise the bar.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players for 2009/10. Remember that our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
Well it was an up & down year for our breakout picks and while we're a little disappointed we didn't do better, we did outperform our peers for the second year in a row as our predictions were within 20% of their final point total on 26% of our top 50 (tied with one other site for the highest %). Last year we gave you the inside scoop on guys like Joe Pavelski, David Krejci & Alex Edler when nobody else was picking them and this year we stood out from the crowd based on our predictions for Steve Stamkos, Alex Goligoski & Jack Johnson. But it's never all good news and it's only fair that we point out that we were way off on our predictions for guys like Zach Bogosian, Victor Hedman and Ryan Callahan... hey, you can't win 'em all, hell you can't even win a majority of them... but we try.
Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Download Breakout Tracker_Final10
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2009 for $6 by following this link.