Stevie Y bolts for Tampa Bay... we take a look back at some projections... say farwell to the Habs with a laugh
The big NHL news yesterday was the hiring of Steve Yzerman by the Lightning. The big fantasy impact has to be the increased chance that Marty St. Louis sticking around Tampa... which is good news for his linemate Steve Stamkos.
Most fantasy sites don't look back at their hits and misses... not us though. Nobody is right all the time in this game but thankfully we're right more often than our competitors. Today we'll take a closer look at our Top Ten Breakout Candidates that we posted on September 14th, 2009.
#10 Kyle Okposo (predicted: 60-65, actual 52)
We love this guy's game and we are happy with this season's production (especially those 249 shots). But we were expecting a better effort from the rest of the Islanders. We figured they had a bit more scoring punch this year with Tavares around. Still, Okposo stepped up and looks like he'll be a top line player for a long time.
VERDICT: BLOOP SINGLE... he did breakout (50 points) but not as easily as we hoped
#9 Michael Frolik (predicted: 65, actual 43)
We figured somebody had to score in Florida and the 10th overall pick in 2006 seemed like he could be the guy. Coming off a 45 point rookie season (with zero pro experience) a breakout seemed inevitable, instead he took a small step backwards. He's got tons of scoring talent and was played LW on on Florida's top line so you have to like the upside here.
VERDICT: MISS... a year too early we think.
#8 Jack Johnson (predicted: 35-40, actual 36)
One of our Scouts is a huge JJ believer so he had a big part in this projection. After a very disappointing 11 points in 41 games in 2008-09 Johnson lost a lot of his lustre and was overlooked by a lot of our competition. His improved play was one of the reasons for LA's surprising turnaround... now he just needs to find a way to fix that ugly -15.
VERDICT: SOLID DOUBLE DOWN THE LINE... we expect even more next year.
#7 Derick Brassard (predicted 65, actual 36)
This one really bothers us. Everything here pointed to a bust out season. Columbus had no decent c-men around (sorry Antoine Vermette). Rick Nash was desperate for some talented linemates, Brassy was a former 6th overall pick and he scored a tidy 25 points in 31 games the season before. What's not to love? We figured the only way he's not hitting 50 is if the injury bug hit. We were wrong, so very wrong.
VERDICT: BUNT FOUL WITH TWO STRIKES... but he's a good target for a late round pick next year
#6 Semyon Varlamov (predicted 30-35 wins, actual 15)
He was injured for two months with groin problems but that only explains part of the miss on this one. He started poorly (3.18 & .897 his first seven games) giving Jose Theodore more time in the first few months than we thought he would get all year. Once he finally established himself as the #1 in late November he goes and gets himself injured. He needs to get a lot more consistent he becomes the elite netminder we were hoping for.
VERDICT: STRIKE... but if we get a chance to bet against Jose Theodore again, we'll do it
#5 Sam Gagner (predicted 65, actual 41)
He picked up his second straight 41 point season in eight fewer games, but it's a disappointment with his 49 point rookie season still fresh in our memories. Edmonton's complete stinkfest and lack of talent didn't help Gagner's numbers but we're still surprised he didn't at least hit the 50 mark. With Taylor Hall/Tyler Seguin, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jordan Eberle on the way, he could have lots of talent around him and could quickly become a fantasy star.
VERDICT: STRIKE... but he's another guy we would want to own next year, don't forget he's only 20.
#4 Zach Bogosian (predicted 40, actual 23)
Only 19 and he already has two NHL seasons under his belt. He put up 0.4 ppg in his rookie season but fell to just 0.28 last year. What gives? He's got 40 point+ potential but it looks like it might take him longer to develop than it first appeared.
VERDICT: STRIKE... three strikes in a row, not impressed.
#3 Alex Goligoski (predicted 40-45, actual 37)
One of our big successes this year was forecasting A-Gol's breakout season. We liked what he did in his rookie season (20 points in 45 games) so much we knew he would pass Kris Letang on the PP depth charts and grab the 2nd, non-Gonchar, point position. Only problem was he was injured with some various injuries thoughout the year.
VERDICT: GROUND RULE DOUBLE... If Gonchar leaves Pittsburgh, he could be the QB PP then he'll just need to stay healthy.
#2 Claude Giroux (predicted 70-75, actual 47)
We were very high on Giroux to start the season... maybe a bit too much. We saw his 27 points in 42 games in his rookie season and we saw what could be. Unfortunately, he spent much more time on the 3rd line than we anticipated and only picked up 47 points this season. He is playing at a point a game pace in the playoffs so far, so that makes us feel a bit better about this pick
VERDICT: GROUND OUT TO SHORT... if he can land a scoring line job and some more PP time, look out.
#1 Steven Stamkos (predicted 75-80, actual 95)
We projected Stamkos with the highest point total of all the major fantasy hockey sites ... yeah we'll definitely keep reminding you of that. Unfortunately, our prediction (bullish as it was) was still way off Stamkos' totals this season. His 51 goals will make him one of the top commodities next year so if you're in a keeper league we hope you got in early.
VERDICT: HOME RUN... Maybe Stevie Y will tell him the secrets to scoring 155 points in a season.
Others of note:
#11 Drew Doughy: (predicted 35-40, actual 59)
#12 John Tavares: (predicted 60-65, actual 54)
#17 Jakub Voracek: (predicted 55-60, actual 50)
#24 Craig Anderson: (predicted 20-24 wins, actual 38)
#41 James Neal: (predicted 40-45, actual 55)
Breakouts we missed:
Jussi Jokinen (65 points last year -- 27 the year before)
Antoine Vermette (65 -- 41)
Wojtek Wolski (65 -- 42)
Chris Stewart (64 -- 19)
Dustin Penner (63 -- 37)
Rene Bourque (58 -- 40)
Matt Duchene (55 in rookie year)
Mason Raymond (53 -- 23)
Patric Hornqvist (51 -- 7)
Tomas Fleischmann (51 -- 37)
Tyler Myers (48 in rookie year)
Kurtis Foster (42 -- 6)
Keith Yandle (41 -- 30)
Ian White (38 -- 26)
No injuries to report today.
What's distracting us today? A couple of comedy gems since you asked...
- First up, somehow Don't Trade Vinny managed to get a hold of Steve Yzerman's resume. Once you look at it you'll understand why the Bolts had no choice but to hire him.
- Next Puck Daddy's eulogies continued yesterday with the unfortunate passing of the Montreal Canadiens. Our buddies Down Goes Brown and Bloge Salming wrote it and it's gold. You should really read it. If so lazy you can't even click on that link at least check out the two videos that put together for the post... gold.