As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the December edition of the Breakout Tracker for 2010.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2010 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers (Dobber, THN, Forecaster and McKeen's) stack up. We base this on player stats thru Jan 3rd and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better, so we raise the bar.
Note: I had a friend ask me why there was so much red in the spreadsheet (meaning picks outside the 20% range)... it's because what we're doing here is not child's play and we're holding ourselves (and our peers) to a high standard. You're going to strike out a bunch when you swing for the fences but we'll put our picks up against anyone's.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru Jan 3rd). Our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
This is our third year tracking breakouts and our experience shows that hitting on about 33% of your breakout predictions is about as accurate as anyone can get. Last year, 10 of our 32 predicted breakouts did in fact breakout and our 31.3% conversion rate was the tops amongst our four peers (who converted at 27.7% in aggregate). About half way through this year and 12 of our 32 predicted breakouts are currently on pace to breakout, so we're not faring too bad but some of our peers are looking pretty solid (especially The Hockey News) so we'll be looking for a 2nd half comeback. We're proud that we had the top breakout forward, Claude Giroux, and defenseman, Erik Karlsson, as big breakout picks in the Bible and, of course, we were the only one's close to forecasting Logan Couture's breakout but we really got burned by being overly optimistic with our predictions for guys like P.K. Subban, Blake Wheeler & Tyler Ennis... our apologies.
Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Breakout Tracker_Dec10
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2010 for $6 by following this link.