As promised in the Breakout Bible, we're monitoring our breakout predictions and breakout players all year long... so here's the January edition of the Breakout Tracker for 2011.
Attached is a file which gives you our Top 50 Breakout Candidates from the Breakout Bible 2010 and tracks how our pre-season predictions have fared so far, and also how some of our peers (Dobber, THN, Forecaster and McKeen's) stack up. We base this on player stats thru Jan 31st and project a player's points over the full season and compare that to the predictions.
We strive to give you the best information and analysis we possibly can, so in the spreadsheet we've noted the picks as follows:
Good Picks (within 10% of a player's projected points) = Shaded Green
Decent Picks (between 10% & 20%) = Shaded White
Poor Picks (outside of 20%) = Shaded Red
Remember that most fantasy hockey websites will consider being within 10 or 20 points as being a good prediction (that is if they even publish how their picks are doing) but we think you deserve better, so we raise the bar.
Note: I had a friend ask me why there was so much red in the spreadsheet (meaning picks outside the 20% range)... it's because what we're doing here is not child's play and we're holding ourselves (and our peers) to a high standard. You're going to strike out a bunch when you swing for the fences but we'll put our picks up against anyone's.
We also provide you with a list of the top breakout players so far (thru Jan 31st). Our definition of a breakout player is a forward that breaks 50 points for the first time, a dman who breaks 30 points for the first time or a goalie who establishes themselves as a starting goalie for the first time.
This is our third year tracking breakouts and our experience shows that hitting on about 33% of your breakout predictions is about as accurate as anyone can get. Last year, 10 of our 32 predicted breakouts did in fact breakout and our 31.3% conversion rate was the tops amongst our four peers (who converted at 27.7% in aggregate). Currently 11 of our 32 predicted breakouts are on pace to breakout this year, so we're not faring too bad but the competition is faring better (especially The Hockey News) so we're none too pleased and have some work to do to make it up to you. Big breakout picks like Erik Karlsson, Claude Giroux and Jamie Benn are coming through for us but we led you astray with guys like Blake Wheeler, Zach Bogosian and Tyler Bozak. We're also hating ourselves for missing out on big breakouts like Andrew Ladd, Kevin Shattenkirk and Ondrej Pavelec.
Get the Breakout Tracker spreadsheet for free right here... Breakout Tracker_Jan11
For much more analysis on all our breakout players, you can still purchase our Breakout Bible 2010 for $6 by following this link.