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Consensus Breakout Confidence Index

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Have confidence!... we've compiled the breakout picks from internal and external sources to give you a consensus master list

Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports

A lack of time and a blatant disregard for sobriety this summer means no Breakout Bible this year... yes, I know you're crushed.  Don't worry, we'll all get through this together (we did manage to get the SuperStats out).  To quench your thirst for a breakout list, we came up with a consensus list that takes into account the opinions of eight different sources.

Recall the definition of a breakout that we use in the Bible is as follows:

  • Forward - exceeds the 50 point barrier for the first time;
  • Dman - exceeds the 30 point barrier for the first time; and
  • Goalie - wins the starting job for a prolonged period (like a month or two).

The lockout shortened season throws a wrench into things but we overcame it by pro-rating all of last year's stats to an 82 game season and looking at who would meet our normal standards.  So if you're wondering where guys like Yakupov (pro-rated 53 points), Conacher (50 points), McDonagh (32 points), Wiercioch (32 points) & Fasth (26 wins) are, well we considered that they had their breakout last season.

I asked the FHS staff to each submit their top 30 breakout picks sorted into tiers of 10 players based on how confident they are of a breakout this season.  I then took the projections from DobberThe Hockey NewsThe Sports Forecaster and disseminated their breakout picks (based on points/wins) into three 10-player tiers.  Next, I assigned a weighting of five points for a Tier-1 pick (shown in red), three for a Tier-2 pick (orange) and a solitary point for a Tier-3 pick (yellow). The tabulated results are below with the consensus picks in which the group is the most confident rising to the top.  Voila... your CBCI:

Cam Dio jsuites Jay Mike Dobber THN F'caster Total
1 Drouin F 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 40
2 Galchenyuk F 5 3 3 5 5 1 5 5 32
3 MacKinnon F 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 31
4 Faulk D 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 31
5 Saad F 5 5 5 3 5 1 5 1 30
6 D.Hamilton D 5 5 5 3 5 1 5 1 30
7 Bernier G 3 5 5 5 3 3 5 29
8 S.Jones D 5 5 5 5 5 3 28
9 Kulikov D 3 5 3 5 1 3 1 5 26
10 Ramo G 5 5 5 3 1 5 24
11 Tarasenko F 1 5 3 5 5 3 22
12 Gallagher F 5 3 3 5 5 21
13 Schenn F 3 3 5 5 5 21
14 M.Read F 3 5 3 3 3 3 20
15 Bishop G 1 5 3 3 5 1 1 19
16 Barrie D 3 1 1 3 5 3 16
17 Atkinson F 5 3 3 5 16
18 Brodin D 5 5 3 3 16
19 Boedker F 3 3 3 3 3 15
20 Silfverberg F 3 1 3 3 3 13
21 B.Bennett F 3 3 5 1 12
22 Johansson F 5 1 3 3 12
23 Palmieri F 3 5 3 1 12
24 Barkov F 3 1 5 9
25 C.Wilson F 1 3 5 9
26 B.Smith D 3 5 1 9
27 Brodie D 1 5 3 9
28 Hamonic D 1 3 5 9
29 Markstrom G 3 1 3 1 8
30 Anisimov F 1 1 5 7
31 B.Connolly F 1 1 5 7
32 Spurgeon D 3 3 1 7
33 Vatanen D 1 1 5 7

We'll give you some time to digest and will hit you with some observations in the next few days.